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[ Tuesday, March 18, 2008 07:17 ]

Legacy Journal: Economic Moral Hazard

Section:
Politics

Summary:
* “Moral Hazard” is the current term of ART among the political and economic crisis oriented media pundits. What does it mean? Perhaps we should attempt to define the idea behind the phrase.

Main:
It seems to be an insurance term that began in England. One can imagine the talk in the early coffee houses of London where Lloyds of London syndicates were pooling investors stakes to insure the nations trading ships, their cargos, and maybe event the lives of their crews against accidents and piracy as they sailed at sea to the edges of the known world. The talk among these sober risk takers may have incluced the possibility of some imprudent risks. like overloading, if insurance was inforce and playable if the ship, cargo and crew capsized and all were lost. London, the west’s first metropolis, had long been supplied with coal via coast carriers, before they were replaced by canals and railroads. Captain James Cook learned his hazardous trade aboard vessels of just this type.

Today, the term moral hazard has a similarly negative connotation ---- imprudent risk taking without a penalty or price like bankruptcy or insolvency of a business or loss of a house. Bear Stearn’s most valued asset, trust, was lost, liquidity evaporated and its partners and customers would not trade. Insurance can not cover or restore loss of trust.

Currently, the economic good news is that not all Wall Street investment firms took the same risks in low quality mortgage backed derivative instruments at Bear Stearns. Today Lehman Bros. profit report excessed expectations. The nation’s unemployment rate is low and stable. Productive is good. Exports are Strong. Technology, transportation and services sectors are growing. Biotechnology and genomics are red hot. Agricultural incomes and land prices are a boom for the heartland and the national balance sheet. The stock market continues to contain safe and sure value. Pension and Truct funds are performing well.

Yes, New York and other states are facing budget deficits. Inflation rate outpaces Treasury returns. Discretionary consumer spending may continue to contract. Housing construction continues to contract in California and Florida. Decreasing defense spending is not currently an option. Health care and medical insurance costs are rapidly rising to fund patient expections, institutional and professional liabilty protection ,applied documentation imaging technology, and nursing shortages.

The weaking dollor and low interest rates are a double edged sword,

Meanwhile, in the wild and wonderful worlds of evolutionary biology and genetic molecular biology, guarantees of individual and species perfection and survival are hard to come by.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 03/18 at 07:17 AM
Basics: • Black and White: • Bottom Line: • Business and Trade: • Calendar: • Tuesday: • Caveat Emptor: • Chances are ---: • Roll of the Dice: • Chronicles: • Culture Clash: • High Brow: • Data: • By the Numbers: • Dollars and Cents: • Follow the Money: • Deal: • Fact vs Fiction: • Finance: • Heartland: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Retrospect: • Personal Pearls: • Insurance: • Sign of the Times: • Word Play: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Saturday, January 12, 2008 08:11 ]

Legacy Journal: Saturday Breeze

Section:
Climate Change

Summary:
Concerned about:

Winter Tornados in Wisconsin, Whiteouts in the southern Rockies, Frost in Florida, Floods in the Pacific Northwest? African Desert Drought? Clan violence in Pakistan ? Snow is Bagdad.? The cause is fossil fuels and AGCC. The cure? Crisis and Fear driven Action. The Agenda? Education to influence the young , general public opinion and the polls , emergency civic duty advocacy and political activism, and fund raising.

Main:
Meanwhile, the media rush and gush is fixated on events South Carolina. Temperature records from there are interesting. No evidence of warming according to local records.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 01/12 at 08:11 AM
Burden of Proof: • Calendar: • Saturday: • Chances are ---: • Cause & Effect: • Climate: • Climate Change: • Climate Chronicles: • Southern Comfort Zone: • Data: • By the Numbers: • Dollars and Cents: • Follow the Money: • Environment: • Movements: • Features: • Permalinks: • Hot and Cold: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Missing Parts: • News: • Good News: • Running Scared: • Voice: • Tribal Chant: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Thursday, January 03, 2008 07:32 ]

Legacy Journal: Changes are 100 % that Alarms will sound.

Section:
None

Summary:
Natural Disasters make for arresting images and a cascade of TV time for was are called “ availability entrepreneurs” by science blogger., Jon Tierney of the nytimes, in his popular and timely New Years piece, “ In 2008, a 100 Percent Change of Alarm.”

(Carmel California, see more at Carmel Scenes.).

* Freezing oranges, tomatoes and strawberries in Florida. No problem for AGW scientists to explain away.

9 degrees Rochester,NY, zero in Des Moines, Iowa. Wait for the warming next week.

* No hurricanes this season. Wait until the next Big One.

Meanwhile, what about the science? Is the tide turning in favor of evidence that is not currently popular, accepted, funded or published?

Main:
A show of hands among the regular gang at the gym shows that most are unconcerned about carbon in the air. They drive to the gym from their fossil fuel heated homes to swim in 83 water, take a steam bath, a sauna, a whirl pool and have some hot coffee and soup while planning their upcoming winter trip to Arizona or Florida or the latest ice hockey scores.

So, what is missing here? Tierney says there is massive misinterpretation of weather.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 01/03 at 07:32 AM
Burden of Proof: • Calendar: • Thursday: • Chances are ---: • Cause & Effect: • Certainty: • Roll of the Dice: • Climate: • Climate Noise: • Forecasting: • Data: • Numbers: • By the Numbers: • Earth Sciences:: • Fact vs Fiction: • Features: • Graphic: • Photo: • Permalinks: • Q & A: • GeoEngineering: • Headliners: • Hot and Cold: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Media Watch: • Running Scared: • Straight Talk: • Weasel Words: • Worrisome: • Winter Watch: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Friday, December 28, 2007 06:53 ]

Legacy Journal: Three Complex Systems: Genome, Climate, Governance

Section:
Education

Summary:
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

Three big things that are important, complex and incompletely understood by experts: As Einstein put it, “explanations should be as simple as possible — but no simpler”. And, “ one fact can demolish a beautiful theory”.

* First, The Genome: It makes you, me, and most of the remaining six billion of us, unique in our appearance and our chemistry. It is the Science story of the year. So, what do SNPs, HapMaps, and copy number variation have to do with the uniqueness of you, me, and the quilt work that contributes variety to the spice of life?

Second, Climate Change: Forecasting is scientifically treacherous ground. Here are ten examples that illustrates that point.

* Third, Governance: Today, the politically fixated media would have us know that the world is in “Disarray” with a regrettable assassination attempt and possible accidental head injury of the “chairwoman for life” of a powerful Pakistan political party who has been compared to Indira Nehru Ghandi and St. Joan . True, politics and governance are frequently messy and even chaotic. However, foreign chaos does not necessarily lead to disorder and confusion on the bridge of the American ship of state

Main:
Facts, Analysis, Conclusions, and Action (Change, Behavior, Adaptation---etc) often change. Change is frequently comfortable and slow, here we go.

: There is far more diversity in the Human Genome than was thought by many active researchers in 2006.

:: So, who is surprised that bad decisions are often rationalized by frail data, faulty logic, and irrational analysis when it comes to predicting the future. The results can be destabilizing, even disorienting. Consider the case of the High School Science guy in Oregon and his < 10 minute You tube explanation of “climate destabilization”. Scary? No. Concerning? Yes. Reportedly, his obsession has been followed by at least one ER visit because of chest pain, a leave of absence from his Chemistry and Physics classes, and a move to Corvallis. Can we assume that this 30 something year old father of two rides a bicycle: to work? to the mall? to his doctor’s appointment?

::: Pakistan is a different place than NYC, Washington, DC, London, Paris, Bonn, the Debating Halls of the EU Parliament, and the UN General Assembly. It has been and will continue to be a threatening, dangerous, and corrupt place. Culture and strategic location make Pakistan one of the world’s PMASS counties. The Western Powers, Islamic leaders, and India have long been aware of Pakistan and concerned about its deployment of nuclear capabilities under military, technocratic civilian, or God Willing theocratic rule.

Finally, there is the evolving story of the young female Siberian Tiger that escaped from her open moated exhibit at the San Francisco Zoo, climbed a wall thought by officials to be 16 ft high, and killing a young man shortly after the dusky zoo closing time of 5:00 P.M. After measuring, the wall is now reported to be closer to 12.5 ft. high. Some say a 20 feet standard is safer. Settling in the sand? Shorting on the concrete? Natural weathering and erosion? Police reported the animal died of bullets they fired after responding to a series of confusing 911 calls.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 12/28 at 06:53 AM
Alerts: • Basics: • Bottom Line: • Bright Lights: • Burden of Proof: • Calendar: • Friday: • Chances are ---: • Cause & Effect: • Certainty: • Climate: • Forecasting: • Data: • Numbers: • Yard Stick: • By the Numbers: • Environment: • Fact vs Fiction: • Features: • Permalinks: • Quotes: • Q & A: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • Media Watch: • News: • Global: • Personalities: • Politically Potent: • Really? A Reality Check: • Running Scared: • SeniorStatesmen: • Signals: • Noisy: • Top Ten: • Trifecta: • Dooms Day: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Monday, December 17, 2007 09:43 ]

Legacy Journal: Monday Previews

Section:
FrontPage

Summary:
“Physicists like to think that all you have to do is say, these are the conditions, now what happens next?” --- Richard Feynman

* This morning, national ABC TV Weatherman Sam Champion was forecasting from snow storm central, Rochester, NY. The area is 300% above normal snow fall for this date in the season. One third of the normal seasonal quota has already been filled and winter has not officially started! But, raw numbers can be misleading. At 0800 the sun was out and the sky was cloudless. Some schools closed, others were open. Folks were out to work, clearing, shoveling, plowing and shopping.

During the last week, there was one day without a US troop death. Is the surge working? At the John Wooden Classic MBB in Indianapolis, Purdue hosted and defeated rated Louisville and Rich Patino while starting four freshmen. Therefore, are rankings misleading? Wooden is reported to have graduated 19th in his class at a time Purdue had 4,000 students. His first job after graduation was as a classroom English teacher at a small high school.

* Meanwhile, billions of dollars are being pledged to help jump start a new state of Palestine, new species have been discovered and described regularly in remote, barely explored places like the highlands of New Guinea, and the quality of life and the choices available has never been better for more people.

Main:
Meanwhile, guilt, uncertainty, and fear continue, as usual. Understanding positive parts of the three News Summaries are part of the antedote.

: Above and below normal or average is common and not a cause for concern. Take the weather. Complex system events like winds, ocean currents, cloud formation, precipitation patterns and temperature variation are like many events in the natural world where change and chaos are in play. Predication and forecasting are difficult even with real time monitoring, massive computer modeling by the NWB, and constant updating of data. General patterns do exist, but the action on the ground is usually very locale specific and novel. What is true in downtown Rochester, or next to Lake Ontario may well not apply a mile south over the hill in Brighton’s Summit Dr. neighborhood. Furthermore, preliminary results reported by numbers like 1/3 d and 300% do not indicate trends that will continue for the remainder of the season. The same is true of the early season non-conference road record of the basketball Cardinal team.

:: And that brings us to Coach Wooden and sport. To the best of my knowledge, he has never run for public office, been appointed to a position of power and privilege, lived a life of ease and luxury, or been paid for a product endorsement. He has written a simple book of Wooden Wisdom. So, what makes him and others different from many in the current Y generation?

::: So, some critics and cynics focus on the failures of the past, others chose to travel the tough, slow, uncharted road to peace in the Middle East. One such traveler is football fan, the U.S. Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleezza Rice. Another person of character is the ant guy, E. O. Wilson. He has written that fewer than 25% of the worlds species have been discovered, described, named, archived and studied.

And finally, who can fail to be impressed by the demonstrated virtue of Charity and giving by the American public.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 12/17 at 09:43 AM
Basics: • Calendar: • Monday: • Chances are ---: • Roll of the Dice: • Climate: • Climate Chronicles: • Features: • Quotes: • Fresh Look: • Headliners: • Heartland: • Jump Start: • Moral Clarity: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Good News: • Sports: • Personalities: • Philanthropy: • Playbook: • Predictions: • Previews: • Profiles: • Science and Technology: • Natural Sciences: • Biology: • Wild Life: • Senior Status: • Snow Flakes: • Standards: • Statistics: • Surge: • Vital Signs: • Weather Watch: • Winter Watch: • Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow: • By the Numbers: • Virtues: • Charity: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Wednesday, November 28, 2007 13:26 ]

Legacy Journal: Wednesday Wisdom

Section:
Briefs

Summary:
* Ban Ki-moon, a career diplomat, is the recently elected Secretary-General of the United Nations. Based in New York City is appears to be saying all the right things about climate change, according to reporting by Rivkin of the nytimes.

Google is going Green. The company is putting some spare change into climate change and investing in windturbines at altitude with attitude. Altitude is provided by kites. It sounds like kind of a wind driven twofer.: lift and thrust.

* Subclinical sport associated concussion seems to be a mini epidemic. Detection and followup requires a $200 per pop neurobiopsycology evaluation using proprietary software. Hum.

Main:
“Science is facts; just as houses are made of stones, so is science made of facts; but a pile of stones is not a house and a collection of facts is not necessarily science” - Henri Poincare

: Ban do not have scientist credentials, Nor is he from France, but that does not stop him from trying use French. So, he does appear to endorse the conventional wisdom of doing good in the third world by sharing, yet again, the pervailing urban Penthouse technical wisdom of the Northern Hemisphere with the largely Southern Hemisphere poor of Africa, Asia, and South America. That wisdom is for the rapid adoption and deployment of alternatives to fossil fuels. Nuclear power for electricity generation in Korea, diesel for the trains of China, bunker oil for the fleets of Norway, gas for the taxis of Caracas, kerosene for the jets to Bali, and dung for the village hearths of India appear unacceptable alternatives at the outset. So think about kite power.

:: And brings us to Google Green. They are hedging their bets on kites, and like Microsoft have located their most recent server farms close to safe, secure and reliable hydroelectric dams in the Pacific Northwest.

::: Meanwhile youth contact sports like football in New York have mandated safety requirements, These are costly. So a property tax assessment is under consideration by a number of western upstate New York school districts.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 11/28 at 01:26 PM
Calendar: • Wednesday: • Caveat Emptor: • Culture Clash: • High Brow: • Demographics: • Energy: • Environment: • Movements: • Policy: • Homeostasis: • How To: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • Leap of Faith: • Nature: • News: • Global: • Really? A Reality Check: • Report Card: • Sixth Sense: • Sustainability: • Translations: • Quotes: • Climate Change: • Certainty: • By the Numbers: • Dollars and Cents: • Blowback: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Monday, November 26, 2007 06:39 ]

Legacy Journal: A Culture of Complaint: Bets not Paying Off: Blame it on the Weather

Section:
Environment

Summary:
“Coal lay in ledges under the ground since the Flood, until a laborer with pick and windlass brings it to the surface. We may will call it black diamonds. Every basket is power and civilization. For coal is a portable climate”. --- Ralph Waldo Emerson

“ Never place a bet on a college football game or predict the temperature and wind speed and direction at game time next week.” --- ESPN sports reporter.

How times change. Heat, cold and coal seem to be central to our perception of the way the world works,—or should bend before our needs. Carbon and coal are central to current complaints about climate, temperature and the natural and chaotic rhythm of weather that frustrate use with dynamic and sometimes dramatic changes.

Coal remains, for many, an abundant source of comfort, convenience, and civil necessity, and mostly in the form of reliable and affordable electrical power. How often, we take the long history of energy technology progress for granted. Try living off the grid in winter bound Yellowstone NP or Alaska for three days to learn the point.

Main:
Gambling with your life to test survival limits has always been a challenge for young risk takers. Thus, the sustained popularity of books by Jon Krakauer of Corvallis, Oregon.

Some complain about the weather or the temperature. Others engage Nature directly-- face to face.

Thank about it. Weather is used to explain and give meaning to how our moods change, when shoppers buy, why the tomatoes will not grow, where water is available, who needs to put in hay, what species will survive, thrive, --- or not.

Today,

* Snow is falling in the Pacific Northwest Cascades at the 3,000 ft level.

* Rochester, NY is shrouded in dark gray and the school kids are prepared for rain.

* Bali is preparing for a tropical jet set De visit by UN types.

* Maryland is hosting Middle East stakeholders this week. The Golan is on the table.

* Oil spot market prices, the price of hay, and the cost of milk at the market continue to spike upwards as dollar markets continue to adjust to the whole as it is, not the world that that we want, but do not control.

Meanwhile most pundits, planners, policy makers, and politicians have yet to place their bets and roll out their plans and consumer cost analysis for taxing, capping or trading carbon and carbon surrogates. Many call for institutions to place risky but necessary bets so as effectively manage the earth billions of known and unknown plant and animal species, control weather and climate, and listen to our complains about the present, regrets about the past, and fears about the future. All of this seems to represent a naively self centered view of the State of Nature as it is experience by those live closest to her mystery and best know her power.

Energy Factoid:

* The University of Southern California is the largest non public customer for electrical power in Los Angeles. Government and public education continue to be major power users and wasters.

Question:

* What measurement best represents the earth’s heat cycle?

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 11/26 at 06:39 AM
Backgrounder: • Bottom Line: • Business and Trade: • Calendar: • Monday: • Cascade Effect: • Changing Course: • Counter Currents: • Demographics: • Energy: • Fast Facts: • Food: • Hot and Cold: • Leap of Faith: • Media Watch: • Moral Jeopardy: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Global: • Oregon: • Political Watch: • Science and Technology: • Physical Sciences: • Side Effects: • Weather Watch: • Wilderness: • Metaphors: • Climate Change: • Heat of the Moment: • Climate Chronicles: • Roll of the Dice: • By the Numbers: • Punditry: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

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