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[ Tuesday, March 18, 2008 07:17 ]

Legacy Journal: Economic Moral Hazard

Section:
Politics

Summary:
* “Moral Hazard” is the current term of ART among the political and economic crisis oriented media pundits. What does it mean? Perhaps we should attempt to define the idea behind the phrase.

Main:
It seems to be an insurance term that began in England. One can imagine the talk in the early coffee houses of London where Lloyds of London syndicates were pooling investors stakes to insure the nations trading ships, their cargos, and maybe event the lives of their crews against accidents and piracy as they sailed at sea to the edges of the known world. The talk among these sober risk takers may have incluced the possibility of some imprudent risks. like overloading, if insurance was inforce and playable if the ship, cargo and crew capsized and all were lost. London, the west’s first metropolis, had long been supplied with coal via coast carriers, before they were replaced by canals and railroads. Captain James Cook learned his hazardous trade aboard vessels of just this type.

Today, the term moral hazard has a similarly negative connotation ---- imprudent risk taking without a penalty or price like bankruptcy or insolvency of a business or loss of a house. Bear Stearn’s most valued asset, trust, was lost, liquidity evaporated and its partners and customers would not trade. Insurance can not cover or restore loss of trust.

Currently, the economic good news is that not all Wall Street investment firms took the same risks in low quality mortgage backed derivative instruments at Bear Stearns. Today Lehman Bros. profit report excessed expectations. The nation’s unemployment rate is low and stable. Productive is good. Exports are Strong. Technology, transportation and services sectors are growing. Biotechnology and genomics are red hot. Agricultural incomes and land prices are a boom for the heartland and the national balance sheet. The stock market continues to contain safe and sure value. Pension and Truct funds are performing well.

Yes, New York and other states are facing budget deficits. Inflation rate outpaces Treasury returns. Discretionary consumer spending may continue to contract. Housing construction continues to contract in California and Florida. Decreasing defense spending is not currently an option. Health care and medical insurance costs are rapidly rising to fund patient expections, institutional and professional liabilty protection ,applied documentation imaging technology, and nursing shortages.

The weaking dollor and low interest rates are a double edged sword,

Meanwhile, in the wild and wonderful worlds of evolutionary biology and genetic molecular biology, guarantees of individual and species perfection and survival are hard to come by.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 03/18 at 07:17 AM
Basics: • Black and White: • Bottom Line: • Business and Trade: • Calendar: • Tuesday: • Caveat Emptor: • Chances are ---: • Roll of the Dice: • Chronicles: • Culture Clash: • High Brow: • Data: • By the Numbers: • Dollars and Cents: • Follow the Money: • Deal: • Fact vs Fiction: • Finance: • Heartland: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Retrospect: • Personal Pearls: • Insurance: • Sign of the Times: • Word Play: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Friday, December 28, 2007 06:53 ]

Legacy Journal: Three Complex Systems: Genome, Climate, Governance

Section:
Education

Summary:
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

Three big things that are important, complex and incompletely understood by experts: As Einstein put it, “explanations should be as simple as possible — but no simpler”. And, “ one fact can demolish a beautiful theory”.

* First, The Genome: It makes you, me, and most of the remaining six billion of us, unique in our appearance and our chemistry. It is the Science story of the year. So, what do SNPs, HapMaps, and copy number variation have to do with the uniqueness of you, me, and the quilt work that contributes variety to the spice of life?

Second, Climate Change: Forecasting is scientifically treacherous ground. Here are ten examples that illustrates that point.

* Third, Governance: Today, the politically fixated media would have us know that the world is in “Disarray” with a regrettable assassination attempt and possible accidental head injury of the “chairwoman for life” of a powerful Pakistan political party who has been compared to Indira Nehru Ghandi and St. Joan . True, politics and governance are frequently messy and even chaotic. However, foreign chaos does not necessarily lead to disorder and confusion on the bridge of the American ship of state

Main:
Facts, Analysis, Conclusions, and Action (Change, Behavior, Adaptation---etc) often change. Change is frequently comfortable and slow, here we go.

: There is far more diversity in the Human Genome than was thought by many active researchers in 2006.

:: So, who is surprised that bad decisions are often rationalized by frail data, faulty logic, and irrational analysis when it comes to predicting the future. The results can be destabilizing, even disorienting. Consider the case of the High School Science guy in Oregon and his < 10 minute You tube explanation of “climate destabilization”. Scary? No. Concerning? Yes. Reportedly, his obsession has been followed by at least one ER visit because of chest pain, a leave of absence from his Chemistry and Physics classes, and a move to Corvallis. Can we assume that this 30 something year old father of two rides a bicycle: to work? to the mall? to his doctor’s appointment?

::: Pakistan is a different place than NYC, Washington, DC, London, Paris, Bonn, the Debating Halls of the EU Parliament, and the UN General Assembly. It has been and will continue to be a threatening, dangerous, and corrupt place. Culture and strategic location make Pakistan one of the world’s PMASS counties. The Western Powers, Islamic leaders, and India have long been aware of Pakistan and concerned about its deployment of nuclear capabilities under military, technocratic civilian, or God Willing theocratic rule.

Finally, there is the evolving story of the young female Siberian Tiger that escaped from her open moated exhibit at the San Francisco Zoo, climbed a wall thought by officials to be 16 ft high, and killing a young man shortly after the dusky zoo closing time of 5:00 P.M. After measuring, the wall is now reported to be closer to 12.5 ft. high. Some say a 20 feet standard is safer. Settling in the sand? Shorting on the concrete? Natural weathering and erosion? Police reported the animal died of bullets they fired after responding to a series of confusing 911 calls.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 12/28 at 06:53 AM
Alerts: • Basics: • Bottom Line: • Bright Lights: • Burden of Proof: • Calendar: • Friday: • Chances are ---: • Cause & Effect: • Certainty: • Climate: • Forecasting: • Data: • Numbers: • Yard Stick: • By the Numbers: • Environment: • Fact vs Fiction: • Features: • Permalinks: • Quotes: • Q & A: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • Media Watch: • News: • Global: • Personalities: • Politically Potent: • Really? A Reality Check: • Running Scared: • SeniorStatesmen: • Signals: • Noisy: • Top Ten: • Trifecta: • Dooms Day: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Sunday, December 09, 2007 10:39 ]

Legacy Journal: The Sunday Funnies and Surprises

Section:
Business

Summary:
This morning, Maureen Dowd, the catty Op-Ed Columnist at the nytimes opines that Mitt’s No J.F.K.. Apparently, shameless, she borrowed the phrase from Woodward, a recent 0p-Ed Contributor. As previously noted here, he borrowed it from the late LLoyd Bentsen of Texas.

Main:
“ To borrow a cup sugar from a neighbor without permission is stealing. To borrowing someone writing without attribution is plagarism and may get you kicked out of school. To borrow ideas from everyone is called research.” --- a olde mentor and others.

“ Never look back in business, if you do, you’ll lose your nerve.” ---- Robert O. Anderson nytimes obituary

: We note that Dowd did a phone interview with, and quoted fellow writer , Jon Krahauer, author of Under the Banner of Heaven. Both seem to find the 1820 upstate New York roots of Mormonism, the role of Brigham Young in the settling the West and the founding of the Beehive state., the presence of Mormon Temples in places like Washington, D.C., and presidential candidates that do not feel compelled to publicly discuss their undergarments as, well, troubling to some at best and dangerous to the rest of us at worst. Those narrow views are also shared by some towards observant members of the Jewish faith and about the possible role of Boston’s Cardinal Cushing during the early 1960’s American advisory “involvement” in Vietnam --- one of many JFK presidential high risk “courageous” adventures. In the end, MS Dowd, is correct. At age 60, Mitt Romney is not the forever 46 years young JFK of her youth. BTW, LDS, founder, Joseph Smith was killed by a mob at the age of 39 while in jail in a small town in Missouri.

We also note the the First Amendment to the Constitution devotes more space to the establishment and expression clause, than to the freedom of press and speech clause.

:: To many, Robert Anderson was a conservation hero. To others, he was the personification of the Environmental Movement’s worse nightmare. A Los Angeles based oilman and Arco founder, he drilled early and often in New Mexico and Alaska, refined in California, supported Republican candidates, and owned large ranches that ran cattle by the thousands. Five strikes and you take a protester’s pie to the face. Anderson was also an early contributor to the Muir Institute housed at UCDavis. Early on, he was acutely aware of the risk’s involved in the counties growing dependence on foreign sources of oil, and he was an active participant and supporter of the summer think tank gathering at the Aspen Institute in Colorado.

::: Finally, what if the writers went on strike and there was not late night performers? Would Oprah take her show on the road? Would Hillary gaffs go unnoticed? Would comedy, satire, and fiction be found only in print?

Meanwhile, one can expect a blizzard of climate news this next week from Oslo and Bali.

BTW, could it be that some Catholics are cranky with the Mormons because of a MBB BYU victory over the Notre Dame Irish? Maybe it was just a cold cup of coffee at Marriott’s.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 12/09 at 10:39 AM
Black and White: • Calendar: • Sunday: • Culture Clash: • Deadly Sins: • Environment: • Movements: • Features: • Permalinks: • Quotes: • Video Link: • Give and Take: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • Media Watch: • Memory Lane: • News: • Ink Blot: • OhMyGod!: • Personalities: • Religion: • Judism: • UCDavis: • Values: • Washington Watch: • Weasel Words: • problematic: • What if...?: • Blowback: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Wednesday, November 28, 2007 13:26 ]

Legacy Journal: Wednesday Wisdom

Section:
Briefs

Summary:
* Ban Ki-moon, a career diplomat, is the recently elected Secretary-General of the United Nations. Based in New York City is appears to be saying all the right things about climate change, according to reporting by Rivkin of the nytimes.

Google is going Green. The company is putting some spare change into climate change and investing in windturbines at altitude with attitude. Altitude is provided by kites. It sounds like kind of a wind driven twofer.: lift and thrust.

* Subclinical sport associated concussion seems to be a mini epidemic. Detection and followup requires a $200 per pop neurobiopsycology evaluation using proprietary software. Hum.

Main:
“Science is facts; just as houses are made of stones, so is science made of facts; but a pile of stones is not a house and a collection of facts is not necessarily science” - Henri Poincare

: Ban do not have scientist credentials, Nor is he from France, but that does not stop him from trying use French. So, he does appear to endorse the conventional wisdom of doing good in the third world by sharing, yet again, the pervailing urban Penthouse technical wisdom of the Northern Hemisphere with the largely Southern Hemisphere poor of Africa, Asia, and South America. That wisdom is for the rapid adoption and deployment of alternatives to fossil fuels. Nuclear power for electricity generation in Korea, diesel for the trains of China, bunker oil for the fleets of Norway, gas for the taxis of Caracas, kerosene for the jets to Bali, and dung for the village hearths of India appear unacceptable alternatives at the outset. So think about kite power.

:: And brings us to Google Green. They are hedging their bets on kites, and like Microsoft have located their most recent server farms close to safe, secure and reliable hydroelectric dams in the Pacific Northwest.

::: Meanwhile youth contact sports like football in New York have mandated safety requirements, These are costly. So a property tax assessment is under consideration by a number of western upstate New York school districts.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 11/28 at 01:26 PM
Calendar: • Wednesday: • Caveat Emptor: • Culture Clash: • High Brow: • Demographics: • Energy: • Environment: • Movements: • Policy: • Homeostasis: • How To: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • Leap of Faith: • Nature: • News: • Global: • Really? A Reality Check: • Report Card: • Sixth Sense: • Sustainability: • Translations: • Quotes: • Climate Change: • Certainty: • By the Numbers: • Dollars and Cents: • Blowback: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Monday, November 26, 2007 06:39 ]

Legacy Journal: A Culture of Complaint: Bets not Paying Off: Blame it on the Weather

Section:
Environment

Summary:
“Coal lay in ledges under the ground since the Flood, until a laborer with pick and windlass brings it to the surface. We may will call it black diamonds. Every basket is power and civilization. For coal is a portable climate”. --- Ralph Waldo Emerson

“ Never place a bet on a college football game or predict the temperature and wind speed and direction at game time next week.” --- ESPN sports reporter.

How times change. Heat, cold and coal seem to be central to our perception of the way the world works,—or should bend before our needs. Carbon and coal are central to current complaints about climate, temperature and the natural and chaotic rhythm of weather that frustrate use with dynamic and sometimes dramatic changes.

Coal remains, for many, an abundant source of comfort, convenience, and civil necessity, and mostly in the form of reliable and affordable electrical power. How often, we take the long history of energy technology progress for granted. Try living off the grid in winter bound Yellowstone NP or Alaska for three days to learn the point.

Main:
Gambling with your life to test survival limits has always been a challenge for young risk takers. Thus, the sustained popularity of books by Jon Krakauer of Corvallis, Oregon.

Some complain about the weather or the temperature. Others engage Nature directly-- face to face.

Thank about it. Weather is used to explain and give meaning to how our moods change, when shoppers buy, why the tomatoes will not grow, where water is available, who needs to put in hay, what species will survive, thrive, --- or not.

Today,

* Snow is falling in the Pacific Northwest Cascades at the 3,000 ft level.

* Rochester, NY is shrouded in dark gray and the school kids are prepared for rain.

* Bali is preparing for a tropical jet set De visit by UN types.

* Maryland is hosting Middle East stakeholders this week. The Golan is on the table.

* Oil spot market prices, the price of hay, and the cost of milk at the market continue to spike upwards as dollar markets continue to adjust to the whole as it is, not the world that that we want, but do not control.

Meanwhile most pundits, planners, policy makers, and politicians have yet to place their bets and roll out their plans and consumer cost analysis for taxing, capping or trading carbon and carbon surrogates. Many call for institutions to place risky but necessary bets so as effectively manage the earth billions of known and unknown plant and animal species, control weather and climate, and listen to our complains about the present, regrets about the past, and fears about the future. All of this seems to represent a naively self centered view of the State of Nature as it is experience by those live closest to her mystery and best know her power.

Energy Factoid:

* The University of Southern California is the largest non public customer for electrical power in Los Angeles. Government and public education continue to be major power users and wasters.

Question:

* What measurement best represents the earth’s heat cycle?

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 11/26 at 06:39 AM
Backgrounder: • Bottom Line: • Business and Trade: • Calendar: • Monday: • Cascade Effect: • Changing Course: • Counter Currents: • Demographics: • Energy: • Fast Facts: • Food: • Hot and Cold: • Leap of Faith: • Media Watch: • Moral Jeopardy: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Global: • Oregon: • Political Watch: • Science and Technology: • Physical Sciences: • Side Effects: • Weather Watch: • Wilderness: • Metaphors: • Climate Change: • Heat of the Moment: • Climate Chronicles: • Roll of the Dice: • By the Numbers: • Punditry: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Wednesday, November 07, 2007 12:49 ]

Legacy Journal: Wacko Wednesday

Section:
Markets

Summary:
Tom Friedman continues his nytimes column on his view of the future of technology, energy, and the role of 700 million Indians in the coming Brave New Green World of carbon trading derivatives.

Currently, some very smart executives and Wall Street players are paying the heavy price of not knowing the fundamental value of “ Junk “ home mortgage backed financial instruments. Derivatives if you will. General Motors and Bear Stearns are the latest in the lineup. More accounting standards enforces write offs against current profits are anticipated. The future of carbon trading is murky and shares a built in flaw with other “derived” finance instrument. That would be a lack of accepted standards and mechanisms for pricing, valuing, measuring and enforcing accountability of carbon based credits and debits.

One wag has proposed color coding electrons so that electricity meters in say, the elevators of NYC high rises could sort out the source of the power used. Now, there is an opportunity for some smart E2K programmers.

Dot Earth blogger, at the nytimes weighs in with more Wednesday Wackiness. A Foster City California project is setting sail to play Captain Pirate of a scheme to capture the rights to carbon trapping plankton on the high seas. Some folks must be spend far to much time watching reruns of Johnnie Deept movies.

Main:
Meanwhile:

The mood of the Heartland was measured by yesterday’s election results:

* Utah rejected a proposal to provide state wide vouches to public school students.

* Oregon rejected a proposal to add to the state tax on cigarettes to provide medical care to poor kids not covered by Medicaid.

* In New York, the State Legislature and the Monroe Count Legislature remains Red.

* A town in the western upstate NY county of Wyoming voted against a proposed large commercial turbine based Big Wind Farm project in their neighborhood. The proposal is thought to be based downwind in Massachusetts.

In addition:

* Injured race horses and other ill animals are humanly and regularly “put down.” Yet, it appears that is not technically possible according to the sources for those legal reporters covering death penalty issues before the courts.

* Important legal and political issues in Pakistan continue to be reported without context as though events in the street are being played out in some small town in Louisiana.

* The temperature today in Rochester is 10 degrees below “normal” and there is light snow on some home roofs that are on rises in the southern part of Brighton, Monroe County, NY

* The local paper has been recognized by an independent trade group is accessing over 80% of its potential market within its service area. That is a # 1 ranking. Among those serviced are a large and growing number of foreign born, young professional east Indians, Asians and Europeans. The University of Rochester, Strong Memorial Hospital and affiliated groups, Xerox, Eastman, and Bauch and Lomb are continuing talent magnets.

* Speaking of snow, USA Today reports that the National Park Service is considering closing the eastern entrance to Yellowstone National Park for the winter. A 8,550 ft. pass west of Cody, Wyoming is used by outfitters for really hardy and fit high mountain skiers, trekkers, and snowshoers.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 11/07 at 12:49 PM
Calendar: • Cascade Effect: • Demographics: • Digital Domainism: • Earth Sciences:: • Energy: • Expressions: • Western: • Heartland: • IT3 Tech: • Information Tech: • Internet Tech: • Justice: • Language: • Lights Out: • New York: • Regions: • News: • Personalities: • Political Watch: • Promise Makers: • Rule of Law: • Snow Flakes: • Spectored Tales: • Standards: • Tall Tales: • The Price is Right: • Triangulation: • WakeUp: • Wilderness: • Metaphors: • Popular Culture: • Climate Change: • Certainty: • Punditry: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Monday, November 05, 2007 06:40 ]

Legacy Journal: the Flat Lander, the Mountain Climbers, and Climate Change for Dummies

Section:
Environment

Summary:
“I never guess. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts”. - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

It may seem like piling on folks who are already down, or do what the execs want, or are just victims of their environment, but, east coast, urban based media types like Tom Friedman and Matt Lauer seem out of place lecturing the rest of us on energy and the environment from from their temporary posts in New Delhi and Greenland. In Yolo country, these folks are called “Flat Landers”. They are not known to pedal rickshaws up hills. Then, there is always the uncomfortable but true story of the Vikings and Erik in Greenland. That story is the backdrop for a Wall Street Journal piece by Daniel B. Botkin. We accept the thought of many who are suspicious about possible collusion between the a national business publication that is a new property of an Australian media mogul and an ancient academic slinger named Daniel. But, here we are. And the Jolly Green Giant would be a man named G--- ? He is not someone you can ignore. So, why is Bob Costas and the NFL Sunday crew dimming the set lights.

Meanwhile, from the alma mater of Ann Curry, the University of Oregon, the Dennis Dixon propelled Ducks are 1:7 to be BCS computer matched for a date in New Orleans. But Oregonians will take the Rose Bowl topped off by a Heisman.

Finally, there is the brave new world medical miracles waiting to happen at a WalMart near you. One dream is stem cell research and what is labeled in California, Regenerative Medicine.

Main:
First, Friedman:

* Dr. Friedman’s diagnosis today from New Delhi is that one million low cost, four door, four seat, local manufactured cars a year is just another example of a consumption driven, energy based, environmental hit than can not be sustained. His prescription of preference is compressed natural gas powered buses and expanded mass transit. He is silent on one of the British Colonial legacies, the Indian national rail system, one of the world’s largest. And what about the side effects of asphalt highways with concrete bridges and ramps to protect millions of congested village street users on their way to work and market? The ecologically correct Governator of California is supporting legislation that includes a carbon dioxide pollution tax on the Golden States cement producers.

* Has Dr. Friedman done his research and counted the number of compressed natural gas fueling stations in the sub-continent of India? Does he think that millions of educated, young middle class women in India, or elsewhere for that matter, are willing to fore go the clear social advantages of a drivers license? Tom, many of your readers think you are facing a Hillary moment. Are you a correspondent or an opinion mover, maker and shaker?

* OK, so there are bike friendly places like Portland, Oregon. A nytimes reporter reports that some frame craftsmen are making them at $5,000 Wake up folks the world is not populated by 24 x 7x 365 Lance Armstrong want-a-bees.

* NBC News and the Today show have Green for the rest of the week. One locale for the reality TV reports is an iceberg generating glacier in Greenland. One Lauer guide predicted the possibility of a one foot rise in ocean levels by end of the century. We are among the cautious and the skeptical who are wary and weary of computer models of complex system what are long term, unconfirmed, untested and not whose code and assumptions are not subject to independent and unbiased review and evaluation.

Mountain Climbers::

* The Dennis Dixon led Ducks are on a roll. They have ten days of rehabilitation and prepare for an away game with the University of Arizona Wildcats.

* The Defense is playing tough late in recent games.

* The east coast media oriented sport writers have discovered the Ducks and are increasingly less swayed by their California based counter parts.

* The Nike folks are smartly weighing in .

* In Oregon, the air is clear, the water is pure, and people come to play, stay and live quietly, respectfully, and responsibly.

* BTW, Oregonians do know the way to the New York Athletic Club. Few New Yorkers know the way to the top of MT. Hood.

Stem Cells, Aging and Regenerative Medicine:::

* Two billion dollars in California public funding for stem cell has attracted a lot of attention from the research community and the University of California.

* The Salk Institute, the Scripps Hospital and Research Institute and the Ellison Medical Research Foundation are also involved in aging , stem cell biology, and Regenerative Medicine.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 11/05 at 06:40 AM
Calendar: • Monday: • Cherry Picking: • Counter Currents: • Demographics: • Earth Sciences:: • Energy: • IT3 Tech: • Information Tech: • Complex System Modelling: • Leap of Faith: • Nature: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Sports: • Oregon: • Political Watch: • Running Scared: • Science and Technology: • Physical Sciences: • Signs of the Times: • Tall Tales: • Trends: • Metaphors: • Climate Change: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

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