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[ Wednesday, January 09, 2008 06:41 ]

Legacy Journal: Minority Report: Polls, Elections, and Climate Policy

Section:
Commentary

Summary:
* Today, we again learn from New Hampshire that political polls are poor forecasts of election results. Why? Clearly many polls are badly done, many at intended to influence the results, and many voters and consumers disconnect their thoughts, from their verbal reports, and from their actions. The easy analysis is that Granite state voters are independent and make there decisions in the secrecy of the voting booth.

It is not widely reported, but Mitt Romney corralled one third of the New Hampshire Republican vote in a five candidate field led by a maverick hero. That is not a loss. The contest moves on.

* Bjorn Lomborg , the climate change maverick from Denmark is interviewed in the Canadian press. His analysis is worth reading.

Main:
* The national presidential campaign is a marathon race. The 71 year old McCain is impressive, but youth must be put into service in the international area.

Put the pollsters and pundits on the sidelines.

* Meanwhile, Lomborg , a young and thoughtful social scientist, is not pandering to backyard gardeners when is come to policy. He is numbers and data focused.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 01/09 at 06:41 AM
Black and White: • Burden of Proof: • Calendar: • Wednesday: • Chances are ---: • Cause & Effect: • Climate: • Climate Change: • Climate Control: • Forecasting: • Conventional Wisdom: • Data: • Numbers: • Fact vs Fiction: • Features: • Permalinks: • Q & A: • Herd Mentality: • Language: • Spin: • Leading Indicators: • Synthetic: • Media Watch: • Print Journalism: • News: • Regional: • Personalities: • Political Watch: • Polls & Preferences: • PostMorteum: • Tall Tales: • Exaggerations: • Voice: • Chatter Box: • Hired Guns: • Punditry: • Reactions: • Zinger: • Weasel Words: • Worrisome: • Word Play: • Young at Heart: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Monday, January 07, 2008 09:32 ]

Legacy Journal: Mormonism, Coal, and New Hampshire Polls

Section:
Politics

Summary:
“We live in the midst of alarms; anxiety beclouds the future; we expect some new disaster with each newspaper we read.” ---- Abe Lincoln.

Mitt Romney is drawing media attention in New Hampshire. One New Hampshire newspaper editorial has labelled him a phoney, a nytimes reporter, Noah Feldman, is compelled to ask provocative questions and then call attention to Mormon polygamy and the “ idiocycracy” of clean living by avoiding tobacco, caffeine and alcohol. Does he also consider the lack of gambling and lotteries in Utah (and Hawai) as troublesome as the Judaic kosher food tradition? In addition, Romney is also enviromental “inconvenient”. He calls for a national energy stategy that includes liquid coal, increasing the supply of heating oil by building refinery capacity, and investing in nuclear energy. The voters of New Hampshire are concerned about the winter price and availability of fuel oil, and the future costs of electricity.

Main:
The good news is that the media, including the press, is much more restrained than in the political days of Lincoln and cartoonist Thomas Nast. Journalism is also sophisticated, subtile, and scientific in the arts of advertising, influencing, and choice making

* For example, GMA today reported from New Hampshire on a mind mapping “truth” gizmo that records a graphic image of emotional responses to messages and images of events, products, and people. Is this the new brave world of political “science”?

One of the world’s most costly construction project will be done by a Canadian firm. It is a gas pipeline from the north to the hub in Calgary, Alberta.

* Meanwhile, fear mongering, narrow mindedness and group think is alive and well in the free, but not cheap, mass media.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 01/07 at 09:32 AM
Biography: • Black and White: • Calendar: • Monday: • Culture Clash: • Data: • Dollars and Cents: • Deadly Sins: • Energy: • Coal: • Natural Gas: • Nuclear Power: • Oil: • Environment: • Hot and Cold: • Media Watch: • Print Journalism: • News: • Latest Laugh: • Personalities: • Politically Potent: • Power Play: • Profiles: • Religion: • Christian: • Judism: • Voice: • Demonization: • Reactions: • Gut Reaction: • Vices: • Hypocracy: • Winter Watch: • X Factor: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Friday, January 04, 2008 10:37 ]

Legacy Journal: Iowa: The Purple State

Section:
Politics

Summary:
Iowa is often thought of a red, white, and blue representative of Heartland Americana. The results of state’s 2007 Republican and Democrat party bruising caucus competiton is more some shade of purple ,lavender, or lilac. Black and yellow are Hawkeye colors, but big city Illinois was a big winner, and The Oprah factor may have played a role. Apparently, the Harlem based lieutenant -governor of NY, the Latino mayor of Los Angeles, the former Secretary of State in the Clinton administration, and the collection of labor bosses that attended the Hillary “victory celebration” in Iowa were visibly stunned by results.

Main:
The state’s anti-war, isolationist streak once again surfaced. The Quad Cities and Des Moine media center appears to have influential, but not decisive.

On the Republican side, the two leaders, Huchabee and Romney shared 59% of the secret Republican party caucus vote. Three others, Guliani, Thompson and Paul, shared 41%. On the Democrat side, the three candidates standing shared 97% at end of the evening rounds of non secret balloting.

So, the conclusions are:

: The 1% of Iowans who are potential voters in the national presidential vote in November are not good at voting the next leader of the Free World.
They did not vote for native son and California transplant, Ronald Reagan, in 1980. The follow on folks in the Granite state did.

:: Iowan’s are not pleased with the Clinton legacy, influenced by the Clinton machine, nor swayed by the Clinton money.

::: Push poll tactics had a negative reaction in Iowa.

:::: As of New Hampshire and ABC TV showcase, five Republicans and three Democrats are still standing.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 01/04 at 10:37 AM
Black and White: • Calendar: • Friday: • Chances are ---: • Cause & Effect: • Changing Course: • Climate: • Forecasting: • Conventional Wisdom: • Data: • Numbers: • Dollars and Cents: • Follow the Money: • Demographics: • Features: • Quotes: • Headliners: • Heartland: • History and Heritage: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Media Watch: • Print Journalism: • Personalities: • Playbook: • Political Watch: • Polls & Preferences: • Race: • Religion: • Rock and Rule: • Snow Flakes: • Voice: • Punditry: • Reactions: • Gut Reaction: • Rational Response: • What is ...?: • What is Next?: • Winners: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

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