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[ Tuesday, March 18, 2008 07:17 ]

Legacy Journal: Economic Moral Hazard

Section:
Politics

Summary:
* “Moral Hazard” is the current term of ART among the political and economic crisis oriented media pundits. What does it mean? Perhaps we should attempt to define the idea behind the phrase.

Main:
It seems to be an insurance term that began in England. One can imagine the talk in the early coffee houses of London where Lloyds of London syndicates were pooling investors stakes to insure the nations trading ships, their cargos, and maybe event the lives of their crews against accidents and piracy as they sailed at sea to the edges of the known world. The talk among these sober risk takers may have incluced the possibility of some imprudent risks. like overloading, if insurance was inforce and playable if the ship, cargo and crew capsized and all were lost. London, the west’s first metropolis, had long been supplied with coal via coast carriers, before they were replaced by canals and railroads. Captain James Cook learned his hazardous trade aboard vessels of just this type.

Today, the term moral hazard has a similarly negative connotation ---- imprudent risk taking without a penalty or price like bankruptcy or insolvency of a business or loss of a house. Bear Stearn’s most valued asset, trust, was lost, liquidity evaporated and its partners and customers would not trade. Insurance can not cover or restore loss of trust.

Currently, the economic good news is that not all Wall Street investment firms took the same risks in low quality mortgage backed derivative instruments at Bear Stearns. Today Lehman Bros. profit report excessed expectations. The nation’s unemployment rate is low and stable. Productive is good. Exports are Strong. Technology, transportation and services sectors are growing. Biotechnology and genomics are red hot. Agricultural incomes and land prices are a boom for the heartland and the national balance sheet. The stock market continues to contain safe and sure value. Pension and Truct funds are performing well.

Yes, New York and other states are facing budget deficits. Inflation rate outpaces Treasury returns. Discretionary consumer spending may continue to contract. Housing construction continues to contract in California and Florida. Decreasing defense spending is not currently an option. Health care and medical insurance costs are rapidly rising to fund patient expections, institutional and professional liabilty protection ,applied documentation imaging technology, and nursing shortages.

The weaking dollor and low interest rates are a double edged sword,

Meanwhile, in the wild and wonderful worlds of evolutionary biology and genetic molecular biology, guarantees of individual and species perfection and survival are hard to come by.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 03/18 at 07:17 AM
Basics: • Black and White: • Bottom Line: • Business and Trade: • Calendar: • Tuesday: • Caveat Emptor: • Chances are ---: • Roll of the Dice: • Chronicles: • Culture Clash: • High Brow: • Data: • By the Numbers: • Dollars and Cents: • Follow the Money: • Deal: • Fact vs Fiction: • Finance: • Heartland: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Language: • Rhetoric: • Metaphors: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Retrospect: • Personal Pearls: • Insurance: • Sign of the Times: • Word Play: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Friday, February 01, 2008 12:19 ]

Legacy Journal: Final Friday: Sure Things for 2008

Section:
FrontPage

Summary:
* Super Bowl Sunday means Buffalo Wing sales will soar in Rochester, New York.

* The country is experiencing widespread freezing weather in the heartland, record precipitation in the west, chilly nights in the a hurricane free season in the Gulf, and a near absence of voter, media candidate concern about AGW. Will there be an Al Gore spot ad in Super Sunday? Not likely. The issue is down around # 16th on the priority list.

* The rate of growth of the $14.6 trillion GDP is slowing. But, employers are competing for reliable employees with the necessary personal qualities, technical skills, and experience. The real story of the American story is told by those in line on the outside seeking an personal or family chance at a once in a lifetime opportunity than many US citizens take for granted. Immigration demographics are increasing, not decreasing.

* Voters for the national ticket in November may have Democrat bonus choice: Three for the price of One. Come on down.

* Expect a high gloss, high cost, high profile TV and endorsement blitz and buzz for the next ten daze. The haze of campaign may be the next step in the degradation of the environment by noise pollution and jet contrails.

*

Main:
: Medical Care costs about 16% of the GDP or over $2 trillion. Some what a federally funded Universal Medical System at a matter of “Right” based on the British National Health Service. On the other hand, the American system is also fueling research, expansion of hospital beds, capital investment and a talent magnet in the service sector of the economy. Media advertising , Big Pharma profits , Medical Foundation non profit trust funds, and executive compensation also seem to have benefited.

:: Hillary Rodham Clinton is long off her Saul Alinski and Wal- Mart SOAP box gigs. She has now gone national with her campaign. Her organizing network in upstate New York is impressive, her hold in California is formidable, and she is portrayed as respected in Arkansas.

::: Meanwhile, everybody over the age of 30 who make their living off the little screen is trembling before the HD switch over. The darn thing shows wrinkles after all.

:::: Fast fact checkers and caught on tape moments will continue to fuel the cheap instant analysis part of covering the campaign.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 02/01 at 12:19 PM
Business and Trade: • Cal Water New: • Calendar: • Friday: • Chances are ---: • Roll of the Dice: • Climate: • Climate Noise: • Forecasting: • Data: • Dollars and Cents: • Follow the Money: • Energy: • Nuclear Power: • Entitlements: • Environment: • Air: • Features: • Permalinks: • Feedback Loop: • Going Green: • Heartland: • Hot and Cold: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Lights Out: • Moral Jeopardy: • News: • Global: • Northern Lights: • Predictions: • Previews: • Promise Makers: • Science and Technology: • Social Sciences: • Demography: • Talking Points: • Voice: • Cross Over: • Washington Watch: • Weather Watch: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Thursday, January 03, 2008 07:32 ]

Legacy Journal: Changes are 100 % that Alarms will sound.

Section:
None

Summary:
Natural Disasters make for arresting images and a cascade of TV time for was are called “ availability entrepreneurs” by science blogger., Jon Tierney of the nytimes, in his popular and timely New Years piece, “ In 2008, a 100 Percent Change of Alarm.”

(Carmel California, see more at Carmel Scenes.).

* Freezing oranges, tomatoes and strawberries in Florida. No problem for AGW scientists to explain away.

9 degrees Rochester,NY, zero in Des Moines, Iowa. Wait for the warming next week.

* No hurricanes this season. Wait until the next Big One.

Meanwhile, what about the science? Is the tide turning in favor of evidence that is not currently popular, accepted, funded or published?

Main:
A show of hands among the regular gang at the gym shows that most are unconcerned about carbon in the air. They drive to the gym from their fossil fuel heated homes to swim in 83 water, take a steam bath, a sauna, a whirl pool and have some hot coffee and soup while planning their upcoming winter trip to Arizona or Florida or the latest ice hockey scores.

So, what is missing here? Tierney says there is massive misinterpretation of weather.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 01/03 at 07:32 AM
Burden of Proof: • Calendar: • Thursday: • Chances are ---: • Cause & Effect: • Certainty: • Roll of the Dice: • Climate: • Climate Noise: • Forecasting: • Data: • Numbers: • By the Numbers: • Earth Sciences:: • Fact vs Fiction: • Features: • Graphic: • Photo: • Permalinks: • Q & A: • GeoEngineering: • Headliners: • Hot and Cold: • IT3 Tech: • Internet Tech: • Google: • Calendar: • Media Watch: • Running Scared: • Straight Talk: • Weasel Words: • Worrisome: • Winter Watch: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Monday, December 17, 2007 09:43 ]

Legacy Journal: Monday Previews

Section:
FrontPage

Summary:
“Physicists like to think that all you have to do is say, these are the conditions, now what happens next?” --- Richard Feynman

* This morning, national ABC TV Weatherman Sam Champion was forecasting from snow storm central, Rochester, NY. The area is 300% above normal snow fall for this date in the season. One third of the normal seasonal quota has already been filled and winter has not officially started! But, raw numbers can be misleading. At 0800 the sun was out and the sky was cloudless. Some schools closed, others were open. Folks were out to work, clearing, shoveling, plowing and shopping.

During the last week, there was one day without a US troop death. Is the surge working? At the John Wooden Classic MBB in Indianapolis, Purdue hosted and defeated rated Louisville and Rich Patino while starting four freshmen. Therefore, are rankings misleading? Wooden is reported to have graduated 19th in his class at a time Purdue had 4,000 students. His first job after graduation was as a classroom English teacher at a small high school.

* Meanwhile, billions of dollars are being pledged to help jump start a new state of Palestine, new species have been discovered and described regularly in remote, barely explored places like the highlands of New Guinea, and the quality of life and the choices available has never been better for more people.

Main:
Meanwhile, guilt, uncertainty, and fear continue, as usual. Understanding positive parts of the three News Summaries are part of the antedote.

: Above and below normal or average is common and not a cause for concern. Take the weather. Complex system events like winds, ocean currents, cloud formation, precipitation patterns and temperature variation are like many events in the natural world where change and chaos are in play. Predication and forecasting are difficult even with real time monitoring, massive computer modeling by the NWB, and constant updating of data. General patterns do exist, but the action on the ground is usually very locale specific and novel. What is true in downtown Rochester, or next to Lake Ontario may well not apply a mile south over the hill in Brighton’s Summit Dr. neighborhood. Furthermore, preliminary results reported by numbers like 1/3 d and 300% do not indicate trends that will continue for the remainder of the season. The same is true of the early season non-conference road record of the basketball Cardinal team.

:: And that brings us to Coach Wooden and sport. To the best of my knowledge, he has never run for public office, been appointed to a position of power and privilege, lived a life of ease and luxury, or been paid for a product endorsement. He has written a simple book of Wooden Wisdom. So, what makes him and others different from many in the current Y generation?

::: So, some critics and cynics focus on the failures of the past, others chose to travel the tough, slow, uncharted road to peace in the Middle East. One such traveler is football fan, the U.S. Secretary of State, Dr. Condoleezza Rice. Another person of character is the ant guy, E. O. Wilson. He has written that fewer than 25% of the worlds species have been discovered, described, named, archived and studied.

And finally, who can fail to be impressed by the demonstrated virtue of Charity and giving by the American public.

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 12/17 at 09:43 AM
Basics: • Calendar: • Monday: • Chances are ---: • Roll of the Dice: • Climate: • Climate Chronicles: • Features: • Quotes: • Fresh Look: • Headliners: • Heartland: • Jump Start: • Moral Clarity: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Good News: • Sports: • Personalities: • Philanthropy: • Playbook: • Predictions: • Previews: • Profiles: • Science and Technology: • Natural Sciences: • Biology: • Wild Life: • Senior Status: • Snow Flakes: • Standards: • Statistics: • Surge: • Vital Signs: • Weather Watch: • Winter Watch: • Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow: • By the Numbers: • Virtues: • Charity: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

[ Monday, November 26, 2007 06:39 ]

Legacy Journal: A Culture of Complaint: Bets not Paying Off: Blame it on the Weather

Section:
Environment

Summary:
“Coal lay in ledges under the ground since the Flood, until a laborer with pick and windlass brings it to the surface. We may will call it black diamonds. Every basket is power and civilization. For coal is a portable climate”. --- Ralph Waldo Emerson

“ Never place a bet on a college football game or predict the temperature and wind speed and direction at game time next week.” --- ESPN sports reporter.

How times change. Heat, cold and coal seem to be central to our perception of the way the world works,—or should bend before our needs. Carbon and coal are central to current complaints about climate, temperature and the natural and chaotic rhythm of weather that frustrate use with dynamic and sometimes dramatic changes.

Coal remains, for many, an abundant source of comfort, convenience, and civil necessity, and mostly in the form of reliable and affordable electrical power. How often, we take the long history of energy technology progress for granted. Try living off the grid in winter bound Yellowstone NP or Alaska for three days to learn the point.

Main:
Gambling with your life to test survival limits has always been a challenge for young risk takers. Thus, the sustained popularity of books by Jon Krakauer of Corvallis, Oregon.

Some complain about the weather or the temperature. Others engage Nature directly-- face to face.

Thank about it. Weather is used to explain and give meaning to how our moods change, when shoppers buy, why the tomatoes will not grow, where water is available, who needs to put in hay, what species will survive, thrive, --- or not.

Today,

* Snow is falling in the Pacific Northwest Cascades at the 3,000 ft level.

* Rochester, NY is shrouded in dark gray and the school kids are prepared for rain.

* Bali is preparing for a tropical jet set De visit by UN types.

* Maryland is hosting Middle East stakeholders this week. The Golan is on the table.

* Oil spot market prices, the price of hay, and the cost of milk at the market continue to spike upwards as dollar markets continue to adjust to the whole as it is, not the world that that we want, but do not control.

Meanwhile most pundits, planners, policy makers, and politicians have yet to place their bets and roll out their plans and consumer cost analysis for taxing, capping or trading carbon and carbon surrogates. Many call for institutions to place risky but necessary bets so as effectively manage the earth billions of known and unknown plant and animal species, control weather and climate, and listen to our complains about the present, regrets about the past, and fears about the future. All of this seems to represent a naively self centered view of the State of Nature as it is experience by those live closest to her mystery and best know her power.

Energy Factoid:

* The University of Southern California is the largest non public customer for electrical power in Los Angeles. Government and public education continue to be major power users and wasters.

Question:

* What measurement best represents the earth’s heat cycle?

More:

Footnotes:

Posted by: webscribe2 on 11/26 at 06:39 AM
Backgrounder: • Bottom Line: • Business and Trade: • Calendar: • Monday: • Cascade Effect: • Changing Course: • Counter Currents: • Demographics: • Energy: • Fast Facts: • Food: • Hot and Cold: • Leap of Faith: • Media Watch: • Moral Jeopardy: • New York: • Cities: • News: • Global: • Oregon: • Political Watch: • Science and Technology: • Physical Sciences: • Side Effects: • Weather Watch: • Wilderness: • Metaphors: • Climate Change: • Heat of the Moment: • Climate Chronicles: • Roll of the Dice: • By the Numbers: • Punditry: • (0) Comments: • (0) Trackbacks: • Permalink:

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