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[ Tuesday, March 18, 2008 07:17 ]
Legacy Journal: Economic Moral Hazard
Section:
Politics
Summary:
* “Moral Hazard” is the current term of ART among the political and economic crisis oriented media pundits. What does it mean? Perhaps we should attempt to define the idea behind the phrase.
Main:
It seems to be an insurance term that began in England. One can imagine the talk in the early coffee houses of London where Lloyds of London syndicates were pooling investors stakes to insure the nations trading ships, their cargos, and maybe event the lives of their crews against accidents and piracy as they sailed at sea to the edges of the known world. The talk among these sober risk takers may have incluced the possibility of some imprudent risks. like overloading, if insurance was inforce and playable if the ship, cargo and crew capsized and all were lost. London, the west’s first metropolis, had long been supplied with coal via coast carriers, before they were replaced by canals and railroads. Captain James Cook learned his hazardous trade aboard vessels of just this type.
Today, the term moral hazard has a similarly negative connotation ---- imprudent risk taking without a penalty or price like bankruptcy or insolvency of a business or loss of a house. Bear Stearn’s most valued asset, trust, was lost, liquidity evaporated and its partners and customers would not trade. Insurance can not cover or restore loss of trust.
Currently, the economic good news is that not all Wall Street investment firms took the same risks in low quality mortgage backed derivative instruments at Bear Stearns. Today Lehman Bros. profit report excessed expectations. The nation’s unemployment rate is low and stable. Productive is good. Exports are Strong. Technology, transportation and services sectors are growing. Biotechnology and genomics are red hot. Agricultural incomes and land prices are a boom for the heartland and the national balance sheet. The stock market continues to contain safe and sure value. Pension and Truct funds are performing well.
Yes, New York and other states are facing budget deficits. Inflation rate outpaces Treasury returns. Discretionary consumer spending may continue to contract. Housing construction continues to contract in California and Florida. Decreasing defense spending is not currently an option. Health care and medical insurance costs are rapidly rising to fund patient expections, institutional and professional liabilty protection ,applied documentation imaging technology, and nursing shortages.
The weaking dollor and low interest rates are a double edged sword,
Meanwhile, in the wild and wonderful worlds of evolutionary biology and genetic molecular biology, guarantees of individual and species perfection and survival are hard to come by.
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